Here are five early ‘unders’ so you can have something to chew on immediately, as point spreads and totals are out of Week 1 of the NFL regular season.
We remain in the dog days of summer and the 2012 NFL regular season will not begin until Wednesday. September 5th, but Week 1 point spreads and totals has been released at several Sports book sites and it is never too early to take a look and seek some value.
This week, we look into totals and especially the ‘unders’. Just like in many sports, the defense is usually ahead of the offense in the early stages of the season, and yet the bookmakers still tend to pad the totals upward a tad with the general public loving the bet the ‘over’ on just about every game and that tends to oftentimes give the ‘under’ result.
To wit, the ‘under’ is 315-299-8 during the month of September in the last 12 seasons starting with 2000 based on the closing lines at Pinnacle, which is a slight bias but a bias nonetheless, and the ‘under’ is a more pronounced 105-84-1, 55.6 percent in Week 1 during that time, which makes sense since opening week should be when the disparity between the defenses and the offenses is the greatest.
Yes, all of this went out the window last season when the ‘over’ went an amazing 13-3 in Week 1 and 29-18-1, 61.7 percent during September, but we see that as variance and expect a return to normalcy this year. After all, just two years ago the ‘under’ went 11-4-1 in Week 1, so last season was probably just a blip.
So we analyzed all the Week 1 games this season based on the early information we have on hand and we came up with the followed five NFL picks based on the current lines found in several online sports book sites that we feel will keep the early ‘under’ trend alive and kicking til next season.
Jaguars, Vikings ‘under’ 38:
This is perhaps the ugliest matchup of opening weekend as both of these teams have a chance to finish with the worst record in the NFL betting by the end of the year. The Vikings have been dealing with some off-the-field drama in the off season with Adrian Peterson getting arrested in a nightclub and Percy Harvin asking to be traded, but in matters on the field, the whole Peterson situation is a mess.
On the other hand, Minnesota will have a hard time scoring points without Peterson’s services and on one hand, Peterson is also at risk getting more injured and suffering some permanent damage if he comes back too soon. Speaking of having trouble scoring points, the Jaguars averaged 15.2 points per game last season and that was with Maurice Jones-Drew running wild for over 1600 yards on a nice 4.7 yards per carry. Jones Drew is still involved in a contract squabble and the Jacksonville offense would be totally lost if he is not in uniform by Week 1. If he does sign and show up, as we expect, then the offense will go primarily through him anyway which is still conducive to a low scoring game with the Jags running so much clock. Jacksonville seems to have no choice other than that game plan as it has committed to a quarterback in Blaine Gabbert that seems to close his eyes whenever a defender comes close to hitting him.
Dolphins, Texans ‘under 431/2:
It’s amazing how the Texans manage to become the NFL’s leading in total defense by almost 60 yards per game while they had the worst defense two years ago and it’s all thanks to Wade Phillips, their defensive coordinator.
That defense was so good that it did not get noticeably worse after losing Mario Williams for the season to a torn pectoral in October, so the fact that Williams signed with the Buffalo Bills may not be that great a concern.
Let’s look at their offense, QB Matt Schaub and wide receiver Andre Johnson are both back after missing time with injuries last year, but while Johnson is one of the best receivers in all of football, we feel that the rest of the Houston receiving corps is overrated, so the Miami secondary will in all likelihood blanket Andre at every chance.
The Texans can still run the ball really well through as Arian Foster might be the best running back in the league and back-up Ben Tate would be a starter on a lot of teams.
The under was 10-6 in Houston last season because the Texans run so well and play great defense.
The Dolphins will have a hard time scoring, their offense was weak last year to begin with while ranking 20th in the NFL in points scored and they proceeded to trade away their only offensive home run threat in Brandon Marshall for some draft picks.
Your NFL football betting year will definitely be one of the best kicks so don’t miss it for anything.
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