NFL Football Betting Week 1 ‘Unders’ to Start the Year

Here are five early ‘unders’ so you can have something to chew on immediately, as point spreads and totals are out of Week 1 of the NFL regular season.

We remain in the dog days of summer and the 2012 NFL regular season will not begin until Wednesday. September 5th, but Week 1 point spreads and totals has been released at several Sports book sites and it is never too early to take a look and seek some value.

This week, we look into totals and especially the ‘unders’. Just like in many sports, the defense is usually ahead of the offense in the early stages of the season, and yet the bookmakers still tend to pad the totals upward a tad with the general public loving the bet the ‘over’ on just about every game and that tends to oftentimes give the ‘under’ result.

To wit, the ‘under’ is 315-299-8 during the month of September in the last 12 seasons starting with 2000 based on the closing lines at Pinnacle, which is a slight bias but a bias nonetheless, and the ‘under’ is a more pronounced 105-84-1, 55.6 percent in Week 1 during that time, which makes sense since opening week should be when the disparity between the defenses and the offenses is the greatest.

Yes, all of this went out the window last season when the ‘over’ went an amazing 13-3 in Week 1 and 29-18-1, 61.7 percent during September, but we see that as variance and expect a return to normalcy this year. After all, just two years ago the ‘under’ went 11-4-1 in Week 1, so last season was probably just a blip.

So we analyzed all the Week 1 games this season based on the early information we have on hand and we came up with the followed five NFL picks based on the current lines found in several online sports book sites that we feel will keep the early ‘under’ trend alive and kicking til next season.

Jaguars, Vikings ‘under’ 38:

This is perhaps the ugliest matchup of opening weekend as both of these teams have a chance to finish with the worst record in the NFL betting by the end of the year. The Vikings have been dealing with some off-the-field drama in the off season with Adrian Peterson getting arrested in a nightclub and Percy Harvin asking to be traded, but in matters on the field, the whole Peterson situation is a mess.

On the other hand, Minnesota will have a hard time scoring points without Peterson’s services and on one hand, Peterson is also at risk getting more injured and suffering some permanent damage if he comes back too soon. Speaking of having trouble scoring points, the Jaguars averaged 15.2 points per game last season and that was with Maurice Jones-Drew running wild for over 1600 yards on a nice 4.7 yards per carry. Jones Drew is still involved in a contract squabble and the Jacksonville offense would be totally lost if he is not in uniform by Week 1. If he does sign and show up, as we expect, then the offense will go primarily through him anyway which is still conducive to a low scoring game with the Jags running so much clock. Jacksonville seems to have no choice other than that game plan as it has committed to a quarterback in Blaine Gabbert that seems to close his eyes whenever a defender comes close to hitting him.

Dolphins, Texans ‘under 431/2:

It’s amazing how the Texans manage to become the NFL’s leading in total defense by almost 60 yards per game while they had the worst defense two years ago and it’s all thanks to Wade Phillips, their defensive coordinator.


That defense was so good that it did not get noticeably worse after losing Mario Williams for the season to a torn pectoral in October, so the fact that Williams signed with the Buffalo Bills may not be that great a concern.
Let’s look at their offense, QB Matt Schaub and wide receiver Andre Johnson are both back after missing time with injuries last year, but while Johnson is one of the best receivers in all of football, we feel that the rest of the Houston receiving corps is overrated, so the Miami secondary will in all likelihood blanket Andre at every chance.

The Texans can still run the ball really well through as Arian Foster might be the best running back in the league and back-up Ben Tate would be a starter on a lot of teams.

The under was 10-6 in Houston last season because the Texans run so well and play great defense.


The Dolphins will have a hard time scoring, their offense was weak last year to begin with while ranking 20th in the NFL in points scored and they proceeded to trade away their only offensive home run threat in Brandon Marshall for some draft picks.


Your NFL football betting year will definitely be one of the best kicks so don’t miss it for anything.

NFL Betting? Forget Betting on Totals

Putting your bet on NFL games (or any kinds of sport) is easy, but winning is another thing. You need to research and do your assignments, read, take down notes and read again. And to worsen things more, there are thousands of websites or tips out there that publish some crap tips that and hopes that some bettors fall for it. I have noticed some websites that claim they use NFL totals to win big. At first, I wanted to see if these lofty claims that only “betting on NFL totals is the way to go” is valid. I know many people who only bet on NFL totals and never pick a side. I also know many people who are habitual losers, doing just that.
In order to present any real evidence that betting on totals in NFL games can give a sports bettor an edge, I examined the NFL totals for the last 15 years of play and this is what I found.

There is simply no betting edge when it comes to betting on totals in the NFL. The best edge I was able to capitalize on in my testing was a road team that plays on grass normally which travels to an artificial turf team. But, that road team has to be the favorite in the game, and the results only had under 30 situations that occurred in the past 15 years. Although the win rate was a nice 58.8% edge, the testing was far to small to prove reliable to bet on.

One other edge I noticed in my testing had an over 60% winning rate, but it involved the actual temperature of the NFL games at time of kickoff. I was able to decipher that going "Over" the total of an NFL game if a few things line up awarded bettors big time. It is a simple formula that you can get by visiting my website at link below.

As you can see there is potential for some scenarios too take advantage of, but overall, betting NFL totals are very useless when it comes to finding a legitimate edge that works. There are tons of ways to find an edge in most lines that the odds-maker post when it comes to picking a team, but from my testing NFL totals, I was unable to find a betting edge that stood the test of time. More importantly, most of the testing results were not able to sustain a 50% winning edge, and that my friends will crush your bank quickly.

When it comes to NFL betting totals, do yourself – and more importantly your bank - a huge favor, and stick to betting on NFL sides or other types of NFL bets only. If you are betting on NFL Totals and plan on winning money this year, think again! I wasn't able to find even the slightest advantage for betting NFL Totals. I am now convinced that all these hypes on Total bets might be just a plot of bookies to take money out of you. The real key to winning NFL bets is to research your facts thoroughly and choose any kind of NFL betting type – except Totals.

NFL Football Betting Week 1 ‘Unders’ to Start the Year

Here are five early ‘unders’ so you can have something to chew on immediately, as point spreads and totals are out of Week 1 of the NFL regular season.

We remain in the dog days of summer and the 2012 NFL regular season will not begin until Wednesday. September 5th, but Week 1 point spreads and totals has been released at several Sports book sites and it is never too early to take a look and seek some value.

This week, we look into totals and especially the ‘unders’. Just like in many sports, the defense is usually ahead of the offense in the early stages of the season, and yet the bookmakers still tend to pad the totals upward a tad with the general public loving the bet the ‘over’ on just about every game and that tends to oftentimes give the ‘under’ result.

To wit, the ‘under’ is 315-299-8 during the month of September in the last 12 seasons starting with 2000 based on the closing lines at Pinnacle, which is a slight bias but a bias nonetheless, and the ‘under’ is a more pronounced 105-84-1, 55.6 percent in Week 1 during that time, which makes sense since opening week should be when the disparity between the defenses and the offenses is the greatest.

Yes, all of this went out the window last season when the ‘over’ went an amazing 13-3 in Week 1 and 29-18-1, 61.7 percent during September, but we see that as variance and expect a return to normalcy this year. After all, just two years ago the ‘under’ went 11-4-1 in Week 1, so last season was probably just a blip.

So we analyzed all the Week 1 games this season based on the early information we have on hand and we came up with the followed five NFL picks based on the current lines found in several online sports book sites that we feel will keep the early ‘under’ trend alive and kicking til next season.

Jaguars, Vikings ‘under’ 38:

This is perhaps the ugliest matchup of opening weekend as both of these teams have a chance to finish with the worst record in the NFL betting by the end of the year. The Vikings have been dealing with some off-the-field drama in the off season with Adrian Peterson getting arrested in a nightclub and Percy Harvin asking to be traded, but in matters on the field, the whole Peterson situation is a mess.

On the other hand, Minnesota will have a hard time scoring points without Peterson’s services and on one hand, Peterson is also at risk getting more injured and suffering some permanent damage if he comes back too soon. Speaking of having trouble scoring points, the Jaguars averaged 15.2 points per game last season and that was with Maurice Jones-Drew running wild for over 1600 yards on a nice 4.7 yards per carry. Jones Drew is still involved in a contract squabble and the Jacksonville offense would be totally lost if he is not in uniform by Week 1. If he does sign and show up, as we expect, then the offense will go primarily through him anyway which is still conducive to a low scoring game with the Jags running so much clock. Jacksonville seems to have no choice other than that game plan as it has committed to a quarterback in Blaine Gabbert that seems to close his eyes whenever a defender comes close to hitting him.

Dolphins, Texans ‘under 431/2:

It’s amazing how the Texans manage to become the NFL’s leading in total defense by almost 60 yards per game while they had the worst defense two years ago and it’s all thanks to Wade Phillips, their defensive coordinator.


That defense was so good that it did not get noticeably worse after losing Mario Williams for the season to a torn pectoral in October, so the fact that Williams signed with the Buffalo Bills may not be that great a concern.
Let’s look at their offense, QB Matt Schaub and wide receiver Andre Johnson are both back after missing time with injuries last year, but while Johnson is one of the best receivers in all of football, we feel that the rest of the Houston receiving corps is overrated, so the Miami secondary will in all likelihood blanket Andre at every chance.

The Texans can still run the ball really well through as Arian Foster might be the best running back in the league and back-up Ben Tate would be a starter on a lot of teams.

The under was 10-6 in Houston last season because the Texans run so well and play great defense.


The Dolphins will have a hard time scoring, their offense was weak last year to begin with while ranking 20th in the NFL in points scored and they proceeded to trade away their only offensive home run threat in Brandon Marshall for some draft picks.


Your NFL football betting year will definitely be one of the best kicks so don’t miss it for anything.

My NFL Betting Advice To Win Those Bucks

Looking for truly proven NFL betting tips can be quite hard for beginners. This is because everybody seems to already have their own NFL betting system that they swear by. And many bettors seem to be out and open with it, proclaiming it in their blogs, forums and just about everywhere in the internet in all caps. Don’t be fooled though, if these people were as good as they claim to be at predicting the outcome of the game, they wouldn't be spending their time in some forums shouting how great they are and spreading their betting system to everyone. What you need are some legitimate NFL betting tips that can help you become more successful and make better decisions when your money is on the line. I wrote this article just to inform bettors like me and potentially increase their income. You might or might not believe me, it’s up to you. But hopefully this will help you along the way.

Does Home Team Wins All The Time?

As you should know by now, the home team in the NFL automatically gets three points in their favor towards the spread. This is there to account for the home field advantage prevalent in the NFL. From the crowd, to playing in the friendly confines of your own stadium and other factors, playing at home certainly increases a team's chances of winnings.

But don't fall for the trap and automatically pick the home team who is favored by a few points. Consider that if the home team is favored by 1 point, if the teams were playing in the other team's stadium, that same team would by an underdog by 5 points. Some teams don't live up to expectations at home and falter under being the favorite. Other teams thrive on playing on the road and silencing the home team's crowd.

Therefore, you should worry less about home and away and more about the recent history between the two teams. Division rivalries tend to make all of the classic NFL betting strategies you have heard of as wasted rhetoric. Anything can happen in a divisional game, and you should look back at least three years or so to see who has been winning and where the teams have been winning. Divisional opponents can easily go on multiple season stretches of domination against one another, and at the same time can go years and years splitting the series every time. There's no rule for every game, it's about looking at the individual match up to see what the trend has been.

My Best NFL Betting Tip

There are also many NFL betting strategies that discuss how to pick the Over/Under for a particular game. Again, one of the best NFL betting tips I can give is to worry less about the "tried and true" rules and more about the teams themselves. You can quickly average out a team's point for and against to see if it beats the Over/Under, but you're just selling yourself short. You should be taking other things into consideration such as quality of opponents that resulted in those point totals, weather conditions, team match ups and so forth. You also have to consider player injuries and how the teams did in previous weeks to see if they may be complacent or hungry.

Each NFL game is inherently different and you can't generalize across the board for each and every one. The key is to take the general advice and put it together with research. If you understand this then your NFL betting experience will be on its top form I no time.

Media Does Harm On NFL Betting

In this world where technology reigns, words spread faster than fire. And in the sports world, the media tends to cover sports events quite thoroughly, especially NFL. Being US’s favorite sport to watch, all the paparazzo’s eyes are on NFL – from both a betting and a non-betting standpoint. If you are planning to do NFL betting, then you must remember that the information that the media gives you is essential to your NFL betting success.
That said, there is also a TON of NFL media coverage that does more harm than good to the average bettor. NFL analysts in the newspapers and on ESPN can break everything down including the West Coast Offense, zone blitzing, and nickel and dime packages. They can analyze what has happened in the past and pin statistics to it.
Hearing all these stats and theories can be intimidating to the beginning better, especially if he or she does not really understand football. What the beginning bettor does not realize, is that is one thing to interpret past results and quite another to predict the future. TV analysts are spectacular and reporting the past but handicappers must predict the future.
Additionally, beginning sports bettors are also often thrown when an analysts makes a pick that goes against theirs. They tend to question their pick and go with the analyst instead. This is not a profitable way to do things. This is precisely why I recommend beginners use a system that tells them exactly what type of bet to take and no others. Then there is no guessing, no analyzing, and no indecision. You will make only these kinds of picks and no others.
The coverage of the NFL is so thorough that there is pretty much no stone left unturned. And now with the prevalence of the internet, the information is available for anyone and everyone. And because everyone has access to pretty much the same information, I shy away from basing my picks off what the analysts say. There are very few analysts whose opinions I respect week in and week out. And this will be the key to your success.
Remember not to be fully loaded with information that the media and the internet give you. Choose a few sites/analyst that you can trust and had already been tested and base your NFL betting picks there and NOT the fundamental analysis of ESPN analysts or other overloaded media channels. Just stick to the system.

Why You Should Also Consider College Football Betting

College football particularly NCAA college football is extremely popular. A game in which on a weekly average hundreds of millions of dollars are bet on teams around the nation. Some of the most popular teams throughout the years are the Notre Dame, Michigan, Penn State ,Texas, and Ohio State,. Chances are you've given a shot at college football betting if you're a fan of college football. It's a great way to add some excitement to the ball game. And nothing feels better than your team winning and winning some cash on the side.

It can be easy to lose your money quickly if you are relatively new to college football betting, though. Making decisions on which bets to place is hard enough without having to worry about whether you will actually receive your winnings from the sports book. Making them very dangerous in itself since college football betting can be very tricky and very risky. On top of that, there is a huge talent gap from the top to the bottom and hence it makes things even more complicated. Here are some tips to get you started.

There are always changes when it comes to the roster of players or the coaching staff. Any change in the line-up of players and coaches can surely affect the team's performance. When analyzing statistics from the previous season, you must never forget to analyze the statistics in the current season as well. Another important factor is a player incurring an injury either before or during the game. Therefore, it is also important to know how this player's injury or absence in the game can affect the performance of the team.

In order to win continually, people should understand the principles behind the use of betting lines. The college football lines provided by online betting and gambling companies are based from statistics and numbers attributed to the players and teams involved. It is very hard to predict if the betting lines are correct or reliable since a lot of things can happen in a game.

A great technique to follow is spread your bankroll around using good money management techniques. You can also try a few professional handicappers and find one that wins for you and will share some of his/her knowledge of why he is picking the games.

Betting on college football can be tricky, but also very rewarding. The games are always fun to watch. No one gets pumped up for a game like college athletes. If you know what you're doing, making college football picks can be a lucrative endeavor.

College Football Betting : The Point Spread

There are many ways to bet on college football games that is why many people love to bet on it. And for If you are a beginner but would want to take part of this exciting world of college football betting, choosing the right way to bet on it can be a daunting task for you. Luckily, today we will tackle one way of betting in football - the most traditional of all bets “The Point Spread”. Read on because Point spread might be the right way for you to succeed.
This one consists of picking either the favorite or the underdog to cover the spread. If you take the favorite, you subtract points from your score to determine the winner. If you select the underdog, you add those points to your final score and compare it to that of the favorite's to determine if you covered the bet.
Point spread betting in college football is the most traditional form of betting. Also known as "sides," these bets are the most conservative and as noted above the most popular. Basically one must pick or bet on one side as each team is assigned a point spread. One team is the favorite and one team is the underdog. This is essentially to make the matchup even between the two teams somewhat similar to a handicap in golf.
It can vary mightily, depending on good or bad the two teams are. Theoretically, the point spread is supposed to gap the difference in talent, but it is really just a number thrown out by the bookies, based on public perception, in an effort to try to get balanced action or even at times, dupe the public into betting on one side.
A typical point spread will look something like this:
Michigan State+3.5
Iowa -3.5
In the above example, Iowa, the team with the (-) is the favored team. Michigan State is the underdog at +3.5.
What do the (-) and the (+) mean? It could be said that if a team has a subtraction sign in front of them, that's how many points you take away from their final score. Then you compare that number to the other team’s final score and this determines who wins against the spread.
So NCAA fan, that is only one way to bet on NCAA. There’s a lot more to learn about College Football Betting, sometimes we can just think differently than the oddsmakers and the general public. Come up with your own betting method that doesn’t rely on the same information, stats and trends that everyone else, including the bookmakers, are using. Think outside the box, explore.